Steady, Moderate Growth In Commercial Markets: NAR’s Yun

Dr. Lawrence Yun, PHD

Declining national vacancy rates dominate the latest commercial real estate market forecast  by NAR’s Chief Economist Lawrence Yun, who sees a range of positive indicators in all the latest data that nonetheless can’t quite reach pre-crisis optimism.

“Office vacancies haven’t declined much because total jobs today are still below that of the pre-recession level in 2007, but rising international trade is boosting demand for warehouse space,” said Yun.  “Consumer spending has been favorable for the retail market, and rising construction is keeping apartment availability fairly even, though at low vacancy levels.  That, in turn, is pushing apartment rents to rise twice as fast as broad consumer prices and average wage growth.”

Reading that bit about apartment rents reminds me that a national trend in raised apartment rents might well be the missing piece in the mystery surrounding private equity giant Blackrock’s recent massive purchase of apartment complexes across the south.  Yun goes on:

Industrial: vacancy down, rents up
Yun expects industrial vacancy rates to fall from 9.3 percent in the third quarter of this year to 8.7 percent in the third quarter of 2014.

The country’s lowest industrial vacancy rates today?   Orange County, CA  (3.8%) ; Los Angeles, (4.0%); Miami, (5.9%); and Seattle (6.4%).

Annual industrial rents are expected to rise 2.4 percent this year and 2.6 percent in 2014.  Net absorption of industrial space nationally is anticipated at 102.0 million square feet in 2013 and 105.8 million next year.

Office Markets: vacancies and rents projected flatter but better

Vacancy rates in the office sector are expected to decline from a projected 15.7 percent in 3Q to 15.5 percent in the third quarter of 2014.

The markets with the lowest office vacancy rates presently (in the third quarter) are Washington, D.C., with a vacancy rate of 9.7 percent; New York City, at 9.8 percent; Little Rock, Ark., 12.1 percent; and Birmingham, Ala., 12.4 percent.

Office rents should increase 2.5 percent this year and 2.8 percent in 2014.  Net absorption of office space in the U.S., which includes the leasing of new space coming on the market as well as space in existing properties, is seen at 30.1 million square feet this year and 41.6 million in 2014.
Retail: national absorption looking healthy 
Retail vacancy rates are forecast to decline from 10.6 percent in the third quarter of this year to 10.0 percent in the third quarter of 2014.

Presently, markets with the lowest retail vacancy rates include San Francisco, 3.9 percent; Fairfield County, Conn., at 4.1 percent; Long Island, N.Y., 5.0 percent; and Orange County, Calif., at 5.5 percent.

Average retail rents should increase 1.5 percent in 2013 and 2.3 percent next year.  Net absorption of retail space is projected at 11.8 million square feet in 2013 and 18.2 million next year.

Multifamily: Flat vacancies, solid bump in rents
The apartment rental market – multifamily housing – is likely to see vacancy rates edge up only 0.1 percentage point from 3.9 percent in the third quarter to 4.0 percent in the third quarter of 2014, with construction rising to meet increased demand.  Generally, vacancy rates below 5 percent are considered a landlord’s market where demand justifies higher rent.

Areas with the lowest multifamily vacancy rates currently are New Haven, Conn., at 1.9 percent; Syracuse, N.Y., 2.0 percent; New York City and San Diego, at 2.1 percent each; and Minneapolis, 2.2 percent.
Average apartment rents are forecast to rise 4.0 percent this year and another 4.0 percent in 2014.  Multifamily net absorption is projected to total 266,700 units in 2013 and 259,800 next year.

(Photo credit: TBoard)

27. August 2013 by Wayne Grohl
Categories: NAR Forecast | Tags: , , , , | 2 comments

Comments (2)

  1. It always amazes me to see long-term vacancies in malls, mini-malls, and strip malls, because landlords will not negotiate on rents. Wouldn’t it be better to have quality tenants in all the shops, even at lower rents, to bring in more customers and to make the location appealing to future prospective tenants?

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