NAR Outlook: Commercial Real Estate Recovery Slows
While underlying fundamentals remain positive and continue to support all commercial real estate sectors, ongoing tight loan availability and a slowdown in job creation has softened growth in some areas, says the NAR quarterly commercial real estate forecast.
Exports and jobs
NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun finds mixed results among the commercial sectors. “Job creation in the second quarter was about half of what we saw in the first quarter, which is moderating demand in the office sector,” he said. “Industrial and warehouse space is holding on better because imports and exports have advanced. While exports to Europe generally are down, trade has been robust with India, China and other Asian nations, along with Brazil, Mexico and our strongest trading partner – Canada.”
Although still positive, dampened demand is slightly moderating rent growth with the exception of the multifamily market. “Sharply higher demand for apartments is causing rents to rise at faster rates,” Yun said. “A return to normal household formation will mean even lower vacancy rates and higher rents in the future.”
Credit crunch continues
The current commercial real estate cycle has been driven by shifts in demand without an oversupply of new construction. “The difficulty small businesses have in getting commercial real estate loans for leasing or purchase is keeping a lid on demand,” Yun explained. “Multifamily is the only commercial sector with a notable growth in new space, with some lending provided through government loans.”
With the exception of multifamily, vacancy rates remain above historic averages seen since 1999. Over that timeframe the typical vacancy rate has been 14.4 percent for the office market, 10.1 percent in industrial, 8.1 percent for retail and 5.8 percent in multifamily.
Vacancy rates are marginally declining and rents are modestly rising in all of the sectors, but significant changes in the outlook are unlikely before the end of the year. Many corporate decisions on spending and job hiring are on hold given uncertainty over the upcoming elections, whether Congress will effectively avoid a “fiscal cliff,” and unsettled issues such as health care and banking/financial regulations.
“Overall companies hold plentiful cash reserves, but they are hesitant to hire without clarity over how these outstanding issues will impact the bottom line,” Yun said.
“Commercial real estate gains could be thwarted if lending from small and community banks dry up from excessive regulatory compliance costs, and if international big-bank capital rules are applied to smaller lending institutions,” Yun added.
NAR’s latest Commercial Real Estate Outlook1 offers projections for four major commercial sectors and analyzes quarterly data in the office, industrial, retail and multifamily markets. Historic data for metro areas were provided by REIS, Inc. a source of commercial real estate performance information.
- Vacancy rates in the office sector are expected to fall from an estimated 16.1 percent in the third quarter to 15.6 percent in the third quarter of 2013.
- The markets with the lowest office vacancy rates presently are Washington, D.C., with a vacancy rate of 9.4 percent; New York City, at 10.0 percent; and New Orleans, 12.8 percent.
- Office rent is projected to increase 2.0 percent this year and 2.6 percent in 2013. Net absorption of office space in the U.S., which includes the leasing of new space coming on the market as well as space in existing properties, should be 24.1 million square feet in 2012 and 47.8 million next year.
- Industrial vacancy rates are forecast to decline from 10.7 percent in the third quarter of this year to 10.5 percent in the third quarter of 2013.
- The areas with the lowest industrial vacancy rates currently are Orange County, Calif., with a vacancy rate of 4.6 percent; Los Angeles, 4.8 percent; and Miami at 6.8 percent.
- Annual industrial rent is likely to rise 1.7 percent in 2012 and 2.4 percent next year. Net absorption of industrial space nationally is seen at 59.8 million square feet this year and 67.2 million in 2013.
- Retail vacancy rates are projected to decline from 10.9 percent in the third quarter to 10.7 percent in the third quarter of 2013.
- Presently, markets with the lowest retail vacancy rates include San Francisco, 3.8 percent; Fairfield County, Conn., 3.9 percent; and Long Island, N.Y., and Orange County, Calif., both at 5.3 percent.
- Average retail rent is forecast to rise 0.8 percent this year and 1.3 percent in 2013. Net absorption of retail space should be 10.3 million square feet this year and 20.1 million in 2013.
- The apartment rental market – multifamily housing – is expected to see vacancy rates drop from 4.3 percent in the third quarter to 4.2 percent in the third quarter of 2013; vacancy rates below 5 percent generally are considered a landlord’s market with demand justifying higher rents.
- Areas with the lowest multifamily vacancy rates currently are Portland, Ore., at 2.0 percent; New York City and Minneapolis, both at 2.2 percent; and New Haven, Conn., and San Jose, Calif., both at 2.4 percent.
- Average apartment rent is likely to increase 4.1 percent in 2012 and another 4.4 percent next year. Multifamily net absorption should be 219,300 units this year and 236,600 in 2013.